UPDATES EVERY 60S · CLICK POSITION FOR WHY WE BOUGHT IT
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Today
📖 HOW TO READ THIS
The three big numbers below are crash probability scores (0-100) — NOT raw percentages of SPY dropping. They measure how much the current macro backdrop resembles historical pre-crash conditions across 8 leading indicators (VIX, positioning, yield curve, credit spreads, breadth).
0-34 LOW: Calm conditions. Trade your edge normally, full position sizing on conviction setups.
35-49 MILD: Watch daily. Keep standard stops, reduce size on marginal setups.
50-64 ELEVATED: Reduce new entries, tighten trail stops, raise cash to 25-30%.
65+ HIGH: Cut position sizes 50%, avoid new entries, consider SQQQ/VXX hedges.
Three horizons show WHEN the risk is most pressing. A 1-month score of 70 with 1-week score of 40 means "calm now, storm forming". The backtest table at the bottom shows how accurate these signals have been historically.
⚠️ This is an analytical tool for educational & research purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📅 CALENDAR · NEXT 14 DAYS
Macro events + your portfolio earnings. Times ET.
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📖 THE SCORES
0-100 risk ratings. How much today's macro resembles historical pre-crash setups.
🟢 0-34calm — trade normal
🟡 35-49watch — standard stops
🟠 50-64elevated — raise cash
🔴 65+high — cut 50%, hedge
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